Unfair Competitive Balance in the NFL

Since 2010, six teams with losing records (but division winners) have hosted playoff games. In each of these situations, these six teams faced opponents with better regular-season records. You see, according to the NFL, each division winner is guaranteed a first-round home playoff game regardless of their opponent's record.

This unfair competitive imbalance in the NFL will occur again this year. The Carolina Panthers won the very weak NFC South with an 8-9 record. Therefore, they will host a playoff game against the Los Angeles Rams, who won today and notched 12 victories this season.

If this were the first time this had occurred, this article would not be written. However, it appears to occur every three to four years. Predictably, there will be several articles written and videos created to callout this injustice. There will be outrage on social media, too, and the NFL will ignore the bad press, letting the complaints and criticism calm down and go away.

Northwest Stadium in Maryland.

How is this fair? Let’s unpeel the onion. The NFL states that divisional teams should be rewarded for winning their divisions. Regardless of the record, the NFL seems to think it's a prize to win your division, but let's be transparent: all NFL teams play only six games in their division. And with a 17-game schedule, you’re playing teams outside your division 11 times. Why shouldn’t a team, without a division crown, that has two, three, or four more victories not receive that competitive advantage? That team deserves it, especially with more victories and considering only 6 of the 17 games are played within the division. In my eyes, this playoff format needs a new perspective, especially given that they now play 11 games outside their own division, rather than 10. Moreover, as the NFL moves to an 18-game season in several years, will they then consider a change? Especially considering that with an 18-game season, twice as many games will be played outside the division.

One other note, let’s look at the point differential in this case. The Los Angeles Rams have a points differential of plus 172. That should mean something, but within this calculus, it doesn’t. Carolina has a negative points differential of 69.

Not only did the Rams win four more games in the 2025-26 season, but they also have a significant points differential. The difference between the Rams and the Panthers is 241 points, or an average of 14 points per game. If there was ever a test case to change the playoff format, this year should provide the impetus to do so.

Since 2010, five teams with losing records have hosted an NFL playoff game. In 2010, Seattle won the division and hosted a first-round match despite a 7-9 record. Four years later, the Carolina Panthers won their division with a 7-8-1 record. In 2020, the Washington Commanders finished with a 7-9 record and won the weak NFC East division. In 2022, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished with an 8-9 record and hosted a game (the 17-game season was implemented in the 2021-22 season). This year, Carolina finished with an 8-9 record and won the NFC South division, and will host the LA Rams.

Interestingly, since 2010, all five teams have been from the NFC. This occurred three times in the NFC South, once in the NFC East, and once in the NFC West. This occurrence hasn't yet happened in this time span in the NFC North or anywhere in the AFC. If the NFL doesn't make any changes, will this trend continue exclusively in the NFC?

Two Possible Quick Solutions:

The NFL could eliminate all divisions and create two conferences, with the strength of schedule determined by each team's position the previous year. You'd have 16 teams in the AFC and NFC conferences competing against one another (similar to the English Premier League, EPL). At the end of the regular season, you could take the top 7 teams from each conference with the best records. That would be a lot more equitable than what we have today.

Second, if the NFL wants to keep its divisions, then why not reseed at the end of the regular season? The division winners would all qualify (four teams), and then add the following three teams with the best records. With these seven teams in the NFC and AFC, they would then be categorized solely by regular-season records. If a team has an 8-9 record but wins its division, it would still qualify (due to winning its division), but would be unlikely to host a home playoff game. Much more equitable.

The one last point here is whether the NFL is interested in fairness and equity, or is it all about keeping the status quo, which makes the current structure less fair and equitable.