If You Fail to Plan, You Plan to Fail

A layman's view of the Iranian War. Not being a military person, I'm sharing what I've learned by following this War over the last six months. Even though the United States and Israel bombed Iran in June of 2025 as U.S. officials claim all three nuclear sites were extremely damaged, we’re back at war with Iran. Indeed, because of the seriousness of this conflict, I needed to outline and explain, in my estimation, how well the War has gone since the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, 2026.

So, Mr. Trump started a war with Iran, with Israel participating, thinking it would be a cakewalk like how they swiftly changed the government in Venezuela. Because of his thinking and perhaps arrogance, the administration felt emboldened to try the same military approach on Iran, a country of 90 million, an area almost 20% the size of the United States. Was it a thought-out plan?

It appears the Trump folks decided to be a bully by attacking Iran with military might. Just bombing military and economic targets should do the trick. In their estimation, that approach will definitely create regime change in Iran. Moreover, Trump said on February 28, on the first day of the campaign, "the hour of your freedom is at hand."

The intense USA bombing took place during the first few months of the War. The more time dragged on, the closer the Trump administration was sure that Iran would merely capitulate. This didn't seem to have the desired effect, so the Commander in Chief needed to inflict more pain, meaning more munitions used to pummel Iran. The administration really thought Iran would eventually give in. That didn't happen, and now the Iranians, having withstood the military campaign against them, have more leverage and power in this scenario. In addition, they now control the Strait of Hormuz.

We need to also realize that bombing through the air has some limitations. I'm not sure the Trump administration realized this; to actually change the government in Iran and eliminate any change Iran gets nuclear weapons, you would definitely need ground troops to be successful.

After four months or so of the War, someone in the American military or Trump administration realized they were low on military munitions. Iran, learning about this, realized they had the upper hand; any negotiations were going to take time, a lot of it.

When Trump realized early this summer that the US was getting extremely low on military equipment, he reached out to his Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, for an explanation. Anyway, Pete, being the patriot that he is, blamed this issue on Stephen Feinberg, his deputy. Pete also took time to blame Biden, someone out of office for 18 months. At the time, did Hegseth not realize he should have known the munition levels? Wasn't there a threshold in place to indicate to this Defense Secretary when certain munitions fell below a certain level? Indeed, given his position, shouldn't he have been regularly updated on this issue? Said differently, this isn't an issue you can pass along to your deputy. An honorable thing for Hegseth should have been to tell the truth and stop blaming others for the situation you've created.

(Two things that need mentioning here: Perhaps the administration wanted someone who would do whatever Trump wanted, a former Fox News personality executing his commands. Two, this is the epitome of a guy like Hegseth; he's shown us his true character. Indeed, we need to believe the type of character he has shown us through this conflict.)

Because of the lack of planning, most military experts within the Trump administration never anticipated that this "skirmish or war" would ultimately mean Iran would begin to control the Strait of Hormuz. These experts felt the War would be over quickly and didn't realize Iran would do whatever they could to combat the aggression by the US military. Besides, the Iranian people have suffered a lot over the last decade or two; what's a little more sacrifice?

Another example of the lack of Trump administration planning involves drones; the US military didn't anticipate the value of drones used by the Iranians. Some of these may have been sent to Iran from our adversaries. Because of the drone sophistication, some of the United States military might not be as effective as originally anticipated. Drones were going to neuter some of the most expensive military equipment used by the Americans.  

From the outset of the War, Trump has stipulated his two goals in the Iranian War. First, he's adamant that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. He's also said repeatedly there has to be regime change. It appears that Iran will move ahead with enriching uranium, and no regime change has yet to take place. Wow, with a bloated military budget in the US, is this the best America can do militarily? Perhaps a new paradigm is needed. Shouldn't all members of Congress moving forward take a serious look at how we can streamline the military budget and still have a strong military?  

It's now late August, and Trump and his advisors realize the midterm elections are just several months away. With the War not going well, will they try to end it as soon as possible? But with Iran unwilling to necessarily engage in diplomacy, what do they do now? Should Trump end the War now to help the GOP in November? Will Trump do the prudent thing, now that the US realizes things have not gone well over the last six months? Or does he care? Will he continue to engage in this War and perhaps dampen how well the republicans will do in the upcoming election? Will voters in November realize that there are no clear goals or strategy regarding this War and vote accordingly?

With military might being depleted, the Trump administration is trying a new tactic—economic sanctions. Therefore, he was never concerned about military munitions until he was; many would say it's reactive and not a thoroughly thought-out foreign policy. There are still sanctions against Iran, so will additional sanctions do the trick? It doesn't appear that China will allow the US to enforce additional sanctions if they affect global oil distribution. Initially, economic sanctions didn't appear to be part of the strategy when dealing with a rogue state like Iran. But here we are. The Iranians realize our military munitions have been significantly depleted, so why would they come to the bargaining table now when they appear to have the upper hand?

Many Americans do not pay close attention to the news. They are busy raising kids, dealing with higher inflation, or taking care of aging parents. Life often gets in the way of closely following geopolitics. However, every time Americans need to fill up their gas tanks, they see that gas is about 30% higher than earlier this year, meaning they are reminded of this War that has persisted for over six months and a war that doesn't appear to have specific goals or strategy to deal with this rogue country. Moving forward, it appears that more and more Americans are beginning to see that this is one of the worst foreign policy fiascos we've ever experienced.

If You Fail to Plan, You Plan to Fail